{
  "evidence_edition": "schools-experimental-2-20260924",
  "prebuild_attestation_sha256": "75824a738e44b2e4254c4185cbbb6cbeb0e001327dbc8a7d266555ad165f3945",
  "source": {
    "attribution": "Source: Department for Education, Primary and secondary school applications and offers, 2025/26 release. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. CoryVu derived analysis; no endorsement implied.",
    "dataset": "Primary and secondary school applications and offers 2025",
    "document_hashes": {
      "ogl3.html": "f5b2b9f2af63647cde889fa6c3508f5705925295b74912c68caa28dd37e64aa5",
      "schools-dataset.html": "40584b03f542c043a708b9ccdfe0cc039d2a7dac08c84655b7b6d5705fd20848",
      "schools-explore.html": "7c522e22f194615d71c13c5ba25bc02268ecacb95611c742ea8eac2cab853282",
      "schools-method.html": "e1c2c57c537275caddcc31b4549342f14236171974f19d14e64ad4a51ceccc7e"
    },
    "geography": "England national",
    "licence": "OGL-3.0",
    "limits": [
      "National offer-day snapshot, not eventual placement",
      "No offer can include an offered list of available schools rather than a specified place",
      "Applications attributed to home/resident authority; national population here",
      "Different annual cohorts; no same-child or causal interpretation",
      "Non-applicant offers excluded from applicant rate denominators",
      "2014 suppression-regime data excluded; old count discrepancies not repaired",
      "No personal admission probability or legal compliance conclusion"
    ],
    "method_sha256": "35b891e410b847161b505ce924bd9520b663d7c4bf29d20556a7a2c9e7dca8ea",
    "method_version": "schools-experimental-2",
    "publisher": "Department for Education",
    "raw_hashes": {
      "raw.csv": "6e80c8516867f73969df2a37a74d22adefeb66da1243a6d52e48976d86fc7574"
    },
    "units": "applicant counts; derived percentage and percentage-point change",
    "version": "2025/26 release; unsuppressed 2015/16-2025/26 series"
  },
  "method": "Question: In the England national primary and secondary application series 2015/16-2025/26, did a higher first-preference offer rate on national offer day ever coincide with more applicant children recorded as receiving no offer? Freeze the 2025/26 statistical release and its historical national series. 11 years x 2 school phases; all 10 adjacent-year pairs per phase. Version 2 excludes the 2014/15 source rows before analysis: official data guidance identifies 2014 as the suppression regime and says no suppression applies from 2015 onwards. Preserve the excluded source rows and failed v1 reconciliation evidence. This does not assert that suppression explains each specific discrepancy. The claim population is only the unsuppressed 2015 onwards series; no 2014 transition is inferred. Resident applicants at national offer day; exclude non-applicant offers from first-preference and no-offer denominator. Do not infer eventual school placement, unmet legal duty, same-child change or personal admission chances. Exact first-preference count/applications rate; audit source printed rounding separately and disclose precision-sensitive change. Verify counts/reconciliation according to source definitions; missing/suppressed values are not zero, exclude affected pairs with reasons. No local-authority comparisons or boundary matching. Preserve all source rows and values, contrary/stable/decreasing cases and every pair. Phase boundaries follow source; do not combine primary and secondary into people followed through time.\n",
  "verified_result_sha256": "04df635d65c25c73d67aac271b5eb093d9a3585007d6832c8b97e67d50cf63fd",
  "downloads": {
    "data-dictionary.json": "0020678fe13b45eee027326f65fe4335190e822d9ffe7775bf5ac3ba344bd023",
    "excluded.csv": "0baf6f8c1e732fda1e67ea566d79afc3724d39082fbd877be313093a5e245af7",
    "pairs.csv": "f8801af4c56ef856208bd9827eb179cec5755a973b23aa9d618fb09b31df64be",
    "rows.csv": "4b912bf81e6555764715c0d412aab13ef987f93900e0132cc1c5b75e833f9118"
  }
}